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Biological warfare is warfare conducted using biological weapons, or weapons that are of a biological origin rather than from the hand of man - the chemist, the physicist, the engineer or the computer programmer. These weapons can be a disease-causing microorganism (a pathogen) or a toxin, a poison of biological origin.
Pathogens may be selected from:
Some authorities also include some protozoan parasites amongst biologicql weapons.
Toxins include some chemically fairly simple toxins such as the aflatoxins and trichothecens produced by some fungi to the complex multi-subunit protein toxin produced by Clostridium botulinum, the causative organism of botulism.
Effectiveness is a difficult thing to measure. It is easy to measure, for example, the number of people infected or killed by a powerful agent such as anthrax. However, if a mildly disabling agent, such as lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus is used, it will send many to their sick beds for a couple of days with only a few developing clinically significant symptoms. If the attack reduces the ability of a key site to do a critical job, it may be an extremely effective agent.
The scale of effectiveness of biological weapons can perhaps be gauged from some theoretical studies conducted by the World Health Organization in 1970. The study estimated that 50 kg of anthrax spores spread as an aerosol, under ideal conditions, by an aircraft about 2 km upwind of a town of 500,000 would contaminate an area 20 km downwind. Casualties would be up to 220,000 killed or incapacitated, with most of the casualties eventually dying. If Francisella tularensis had been used, there would be fewer fatalities, but still of the order of 150,000 victims.
There are reasonable counterarguments to these observations. Agents that could be biological weapons fall into two groups:
Emerging diseases are only now being seen for the first time and so are rare. Recent examples are Lyme disease and Legionnaires disease. They may represent a public health risk, and could be converted into biological weapons with time and effort. The known diseases have all been confronted and beaten back. An attack could therefore be defeated by:
This is largely true. However, it does burden the health care and social system. We have also seen in the case of the anthrax mail attack of fall 2001 that some of the physicians did not recognize the disease until too late to treatthe victims. A properly executed biological attack may cause significant casualties and could disrupt a society. The emphasis is on a properly conducted attack. The United States and the Soviet Union spent a lot of time energy and money on developing agent delivery methods. Aum Shinrikyo went off half-cocked and did its own people more harm than good its efforts.
The Terrorist
The terrorist has a much simpler approach: the aim is to frighten people, and to drive the point home by killing a few, preferably in a manner that will guarantee media attention. There have been a number of largely unsuccesful attacks with biological weapons by terrorist organizations. For the terrorist, the key is more to carry off such an attack. Attacking a specific target may be less important than creating panic. It is generally thought that such attacks would be against public areas such as stadiums or commercial or business centers.
We did not come up with this list either. It is largely the product of a committee, the Australia Group with some additional agents that are considered risks by NATO- notably Omsk hemorrhagic fever, the pathogenic fungi, trichothecene mycotoxins, and palytoxin - also included.
The most immediate concern for most people are agents acting on humans. However, the destruction of agriculture has the potential to be at least as destructive as a human pathogen. Some agents, such as anthrax and brucellosis, are active against livestock and the simultaneous effects on humans and livestock could provide a double blow to a society. Similarly, destructive of essential crops such as rice, wheat, or potatoes can, and has, caused great hardship and destroyed societies.
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